AS/AD has conquered the textbook market as completely as the Holy Inquisition
conquered Spain. This paraphrasing of Maynard Keynes (General Theory,
p. 32), who wrote that "Ricardo conquered England," is ironic in that Keynes
was making specific reference to the Ricardian "idea that we can safely
neglect the aggregate demand function." Whether teaching microeconomics
or macroeconomics, we cannot safely neglect either side of the market.
But neither can we safely present macroeconomics as if it were nothing
but microeconomics writ large. In the final analysis, AS/AD is a dramatic
demonstration of the dangers of pedagogy for the sake of pedagogy: Students
who have survived a principles-level course in microeconomics can be taught
macroeconomics on the cheap. The lowercase p and q that mark the axes of
a conventional supply and demand diagram of the market for peanut butter
can be converted to uppercase P and Y; the S and D can each be prefaced
with an aggregating A; and--VoilĂ !--we have macroeconomics.
The temptation to ease students
from the settled issues of microeconomics to the thorny issues of macroeconomics
in this way is virtually irresistible. And the zeal for exploiting to the
fullest the superficial similarity between the supply and demand that govern
individual markets and AS/AD, which is to represent the whole economy,
seems to have blunted the critical senses. Yet, in truth, any professor
who tells his sophomores on the first day of class that aggregate supply
and aggregate demand are in some sense just like ordinary supply and demand
should, if any academic respectability is to be maintained, spend the rest
of the semester explaining all the senses in which they aren't.
The most fundamental case
against presenting macroeconomics in an AS/AD framework is that the framework
itself involves some major (and many minor) misrepresentations and inconsistencies.
The least of these problems is the fact that AS is not a supply curve and
AD is not a demand curve. At best, both curves are market equilibrium curves,
each deriving from considerations of both supply and demand. AD, for instance,
reflects the supply of loanable funds and the supply of money; AS reflects
(explicitly) the demand for labor and (implicitly) the demands for other
factors of production. Although the term "market equilibrium curves" is
more suitable than AS and AD for describing this analytical apparatus,
the equilibrium defined by the intersection of the two curves involves
heavy doses of extra-market influences, market malfunctions, and chronic
disequilibrium.
More damaging to the AS/AD
framework is the fact that the separate sets of assumptions that underlie
these two market equilibrium curves are mutually contradictory. Why, for
that matter, are there two market equilibrium curves? The answer
to this question is that the two curves reflect two different (and conflicting)
views about just how the economy works. This is the internal conflict identified
by David Colander in "The Stories We Tell: A Reconsideration of AS/AD Analysis
(Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1995). The AD curve is
based upon a Keynesian view of supply (Demand creates its own supply);
the AS curve is based upon a classical view of supply (Scarcity is a binding
constraint). While each of these views has its own merits and application,
the representation of the two views as two (somehow interacting) curves
on the same set of axes is neither theoretically nor pedagogically sound.
At best, the classical relationships can be employed to locate a tick mark
on the income axis to designate the domain of applicability of the AD curve.
The mischief begins when this tick mark is converted into a vertical line
and called aggregate supply. The vision conjured up by AS and AD suggests
that at any price level other than the one that clears the markets for
goods and for labor, there will be an adjustment mechanism whose strength
is gauged by the horizontal distance between AS and AD. But a macroeconomic
story that parallels the microeconomic story about shortages and surpluses
is one that defies a coherent telling.
If it were possible to overlook
these fundamental problems with the AS/AD framework, still other problems
would reveal themselves in application--particularly if the analysis allows
for an upward-sloping short-run AS curve. The conventional presentation
has the intersection between SRAS and AD determining an equilibrium price
level while the SRAS curve itself gets its upward slope from a lingering
disequilibrium, namely, the lagging of the wage rate behind the price level.
A short-run disequilibrium real wage rate somehow gets translated
into a short-run equilibrium price level. While seasoned macroeconomists
may see this problem as a clash in semantics rather than in substance,
they may fail to deal with--or even to see--the pedagogical difficulty
that the clash entails. Worse, the lagging wage rate, which is the essential
distinction between the short-run and long-run AS curves, is simply assumed
away for purposes of deriving the AD curve. For consistency, the lag would
have to be taken into account on the Keynesian side, too. The temporarily
low real wage would increase investment demand, which would make the AD
curve more inelastic than it would be if there were no wage-rate lag. The
eventual metamorphosis of the upward-sloping SRAS into a vertical LRAS
would have to be accompanied by a simultaneous shifting and rotating of
the AD curve. But, of course, with both curves on the move, the dynamics
of income and the price level, which is the whole focus of SRAS/LRAS analysis,
becomes wholly indeterminate.
And finally, while the idea
of a lagging wage rate is logically consistent with theoretical constructions
in which new money is spent into existence (such as in monetarist
and new classical models), it is not logically consistent with theoretical
constructions in which new money is lent into existence (such as
in Austrian, Swedish, and other pre-Keynesian models). Given the fact that
new money actually comes into the economy through credit markets, and hence
has its first-round effects in factor markets rather than in product markets,
it is not surprising that postwar time series data do not confirm the existence
of this wage-rate lag that is so critical to the standard application of
AS/AD analysis.
Apart from there being substantive
problems with AS/AD, the presentation of this framework to undergraduates
involves an unusual and curious sequencing. The AD curve makes its appearance
late in the typical upper-level course and early in the typical principles-level
course. In upper-level macroeconomics, students learn the circular-flow
model and identify the market forces that bring income and expenditures
into balance. They learn to separate the real and monetary sectors of the
economy, and then learn that the relationship between saving and investment
defines an IS curve, while the relationship between the demand for liquidity
and the supply of money defines an LM curve. After the fixed-price ISLM
model is put through its paces, the assumption of a fixed price level is
relaxed, and the real-cash-balance effect is introduced. With this modification,
the students learn to trace out an AD curve and to superimpose it on an
AS curve, which was derived from the neoclassical production relationships.
In a principles-level course,
AS/AD is served up in the second chapter as if it needed no derivation.
Sophomores have to learn to manipulate these curves in conformity with
the stories about unemployment and inflation and have to wait for the flashback
in the upper-level course to find out just where those curves come from.
In contrast the microeconomics sequence, where the Law of Demand can be
applied at a principles level and then derived at a higher level, the macroeconomics
sequence cannot be defended on the basis of some primordial Law of AD.
A market-equilibrium curve cannot be a foundational concept. The current
pedagogy seems to involve either a premature introduction of AS/AD or a
superfluous explanation of it.
Premature or not, the detaching
of AD from ISLM analysis has become an increasingly popular approach among
textbook authors. A downward-sloping AD curve is simply posited and offered
to the student along with a reason or two for its downward slope. Reflecting
on the reason(s), however, suggests that some framework other than AS/AD
may be more appropriate. Issues involving real money demand, international
trade, and the labor/leisure tradeoff may be brought into play here. The
downward slope is supposedly based on considerations involving one or more
of these disparate issues. The simplest construction entails the positing
of AD for a closed economy with flexible wages and prices. The story of
this AD curve becomes a story about real money demand. The lower the (hypothetical)
price level, the fewer dollars it takes to satisfy a given real money demand
and hence the greater the spending on output.
Note here that AD in this
guise is conceived as a genuine demand curve and not a market-equilibrium
curve. The permissibility of conceiving of AD in this way follows from
our understanding of Walrasian general-equilibrium theory. If we divide
an n-good economy into two sectors such that one sector contains one good
and the other sector contains n-1 goods, we should be able to arrive at
the same conclusions about the economy no matter which sector we choose
as the actual focus of our analysis. If the demand for the one good is
money demand and the demand for the n-1 goods is AD, then, the choice of
focusing on AD rather than on money is a choice of form rather than of
substance. And if the relevant price of money is 1/P, then a downward-sloping
demand for money translates, purely as a matter of construction, into a
downward-sloping AD curve. Though logically permissible, this conception
of AD is not pedagogically defensible. So conceived, AD/AS analysis is
nothing but a back-door way of analyzing the supply and demand for money.
But "back door" suggests bad form, bad pedagogy. Why not focus the analysis
directly on that critical nth good? Compounding their pedagogical
problems, many textbook authors introduce AD in the form of a genuine demand
curve, making the concept seem as simple and noncontroversial as the demand
for peanut butter, and then, in a digression, derive AD as a market-equilibrium
curve--but without bothering to mention the quantum leap that that slipping
from the one construction to the other entails.
Most textbook authors offer
multiple reasons for the downward slope of the AD curve. But any reason
beyond the one from monetary theory involves complications in the model
itself in one direction or another. If a decrease in the (domestic) price
level increases the demand for exportable goods, then this aspect of the
explanation of AD's downward slope hinges on relative price-level changes
among goods produced in different economies. If a change in the price level
is to affect the labor-leisure tradeoff, then the price of output is assumed
to change relative to the price of input--or, at least, relative to the
price of labor. If these considerations are added to the construction and
offered as reasons for the AD curve's downward slope, then any movement
of the economy along its AD curve will involve a combination of consequences
in which the effects of money demand, trade flows, and labor supply are
entangled. But each component effect, of course, has its own elasticities
and lag structure. It seems obvious that superior pedagogy lies precisely
in the direction of disentangling these separate considerations.
AD/AS in this context masks more than it reveals.
Some textbook authors offer
still other reasons to believe that there is a negative relationship between
the price level and income as traced out by the AD curve. One author suggests
that this curve's downward slope is attributable, in part, to a relationship
between the price level and the level of investment demand: "All other
determinants of investment unchanged, investment will rise if the interest
rate falls and fall if the interest rate rises. A lower price level tends
to reduce the
interest rate, a higher
level to increase it. There is therefore a relationship between the price
level and the level of investment." This juxtaposition of declarative statements,
which involves at least a half dozen errors, ambiguities, and/or irrelevancies,
is not conducive to rational reconstruction. Just what is going on here,
anyway? Are textbook authors competing with one another on the basis of
the number of reasons for the AD curve's downward slope? Or does each author
subconsciously believe that it may take a lot of bad reasons to compensate
for the lack of one good one?
There is good reason for
contrasting the performance of an economy that has a well-functioning price
system with the performance of an economy in which the price system is
not functioning at all or is malfunctioning in some particular way. But
AS/AD analysis gives us a hybrid perspective; it is a half-way house that
jumbles the concepts and misses the contrast. Macroeconomics at all levels
of instruction and research could well make do without it.