STEM Done Differently

Speaker: RIA PERSAD, CEO and Founder StatWeather 

Title: The "Predictable Chaos" of Climate:  From Theory to Practice

Abstract: Within weather and climate systems, there are a myriad of "patterns":  cyclic or quasi-cyclic, those which can be predicted within a certain confidence by virtue of preceding patterns, micro patterns, macro patterns, and bounded behaviors.  The complexity is such that systems are embedded within systems with their own elements of layered uncertainty.  We see mega-scale influences (such as solar) down to man-made influences (such as aerosols) coming into play in any long-term weather and climate prediction.  We will examine climate modeling concerns such as feedbacks, noise vs. signal, and choosing predictors and thresholds for significance using data mining.  What can and cannot be predicted within certain boundaries? How does a statistical model of uncertainty differ from deterministic forecasting? What constitutes a commercially viable prediction that businesses and society can use? How do industries use these measures of climate risk for decision-making in energy and renewables, agriculture, banking, disease prediction, biodiversity, and many other fields? What innovations will be needed in the years to come?

Biographical sketch

Ria Persad studied mathematics and physics at Harvard, Princeton, and Cambridge Universities. Her experience in climate modeling began at Lawrence Livermore Lab’s Supercomputer Center in 1991. Persad performed earth and solar system modeling at NASA and went on to model geophysical systems at Bell Geospace. She worked on the trading floors of Lehman Brothers and was a consultant to Goldman Sachs. As a climatologist at Enron and Duke Energy, she was alerted to the needs of the energy trading sector and weather risk management. She later went on to develop state-of-the-art long-range weather prediction systems which were peer reviewed among academia and U.S. Department of Defense scientists. She models complex systems for the U.S. Space Program and is an innovative Subject Matter Expert. Persad has been collaborating with NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information and their academic research partner CICS-NC on numerous climate and energy engagement activities to advance environmental intelligence. Persad is the Founding CEO of StatWeather, which received the 2017 International Climate Business Achievement Award for top global merit in climate technology. Persad received the Highest Honor from the Society of Women Engineers and Citations from the U.S. Secretary of Energy and the U.S. Senate on Scientific Achievement for her original contributions to computational and applied mathematics. Persad has been recently recognized by Platts Global Energy Awards as one of the top seven global leaders for Lifetime Achievement and as the International Power-Gen and Renewable Energy Woman of the Year. She is also the reigning Mrs. Grand Universe and is an advocate for climate solutions and science education. She serves as the President of the European Chamber of Digital Commerce where she helps scientists and engineers commercialize their innovations.

Refreshments 5:30-6:00, talk 6:00pm-6:50pm